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Voting Propensity and Likely Voters

| Likely Voters & Voter Propensity | June 8, 2013

Kevin Reilly is a principal of Campaign Data Services, a voter file database company located in northern California.. Kevin is also a principal of Flying Colors USA providing services to political consultants.

Voting Propensity and Likely Voters

What is Voting Propensity and Likely Voters?

Voting Propensity and Likely Voters are terms used to target voters who will be most likely to turnout on election day.

Determining who is a  “high propensity” or “likely voter is determined by the voting of the voter.  A Data File Vendor can provide you with the voting propensity and likely voter information for each voter in your district.  Each voter vendor will have a unique methodology and multiple choice options for determining voter propensity. It is important to keep in mind that the voter file from the registrar will not have voter propensity selections. “Why target high propensity?”

The ability to target voter propensity will save campaigns valuable time and resources.  The campaign does not have unlimited resources.

Identify the high propensity voter

Each campaign will have a unique selection of high propensity voters. This will be based on the Because budget, staff and strategic plan of each campaign. Each data  file vendor will have  a selection  of options to select a voter propensity target group that fits the campaign budget.

It is important to make sure that the propensity select reflect a large enough universe to insure enough votes needed  to win the election. Also, remember that every voter in the propensity select will not vote for you so your select should  include enough voters this reality. 

Voter Propensity selects can be made using your voter count sheet

(click on the image to enlarge)

voter propsenity

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